PSA: Don’t get too excited about the rankings.
Credit where it belongs. This started with The Field of 68 posting a ten-year look at the 2016 McDonald’s All-American boys and asking whose NBA career surprised you. That graphic is useful because it does what the industry usually will not. It treats the honor as a starting point, not proof. A McDonald’s jersey is the loudest high school patch in the sport. Ten years later, it still is not a career. So we ran the same test on the girls.
Same year. Same United Center. Twenty-four names. Same lesson.
The 2016 McDonald’s girls game produced two franchise players and a lot of content. Sabrina Ionescu was MVP and became the class star. Jackie Young was on the West roster and turned into a champion, an All-Star, and Most Improved. Crystal Dangerfield won high school player of the year around that weekend and later won WNBA Rookie of the Year. DiJonai Carrington was in the game too and became an All-Defensive, Most Improved pro. That is a real haul. It is not 24 future stars. It is also not a business model unless you pretend it is.
Lauren Cox was the consensus high school monster and went high in the 2020 draft. She played 41 WNBA games. Destiny Slocum, Erin Boley, Natalie Chou, Tori McCoy, Nancy Mulkey. Those names made class rankings jump and coaches pose for the signing photo. Most of them never became what the weekend sold. A McDonald’s All-American is an elite high school player. The league asks something else. Can she still add a skill at 22?
The gurus cannot live in that question. Rankings are how they stay necessary. If every staff just evaluated fit, work, and upside, there would be a lot less to rank, a lot less to update in August, and a lot less reason to foam-at-the-mouth for a visit weekend. The product needs a number. The number needs a ceremony. The ceremony needs to mean more than it does.
That is why the other half of the 2016 tape matters.
A bunch of players who never made that McDonald’s game still made the WNBA. Ruthy Hebard did not get the Chicago weekend. Oregon took the Fairbanks kid anyway. She went eighth in 2020 and won a title with the Sky in 2021. Bella Alarie was not on that 24. She went fifth overall. Jazmine Jones, Jocelyn Willoughby, Jenna Staiti, Ae’Rianna Harris, Arella Guirantes, and Kysre Gondrezick all found a professional door without the patch. If your whole evaluation is “did she make the game,” you would have missed a champion and a top-five pick. You would have been doing the recruiting board’s job.
Last weekend the industry did the board’s job out loud. LSU hosted a “historic” visit weekend with GG Banks, Ivanna Wilson-Manyacka, plus five-star commit Caroline Bradley, while the “Deaf Dome” put on a show. Fair. That is a massive weekend. It is also inventory. Top-fives on campus give the services something to sell by Monday morning. It is September energy. It is not April proof.
NC State is playing a different game under Wes Moore. The Wolfpack does not ignore talent. Moore has said you have to have it. He also does not need the graphic to justify the offer. Character, culture, and roster fit come first. Recruit character. Build culture. Take the high-upside kid if she is clearly that. Do not fill the board so a class ranking looks pretty. Rankings keep the gurus employed. Development keeps the program alive.
State’s next two official visits are that bet in real time.
De’Andra Minor, 6-0 combo guard, Grind Prep (OK). Official visit Oct. 1. Holds an NC State offer. She is No. 44 on the ESPN 100. That is not the number that makes recruiting Twitter lose its mind. That is the point. Size on the ball. Room to grow. A body that can fit how the Pack actually plays. The gurus have her in the 40s, which means she does not prop up their existence the way a top-five does. The visit is about whether she can become more than a slot.
Chance Berry, 5-11 guard, DME Academy (FL), hometown Brampton, Ontario. Official visit Oct. 23. Top-50 recruit, NC State in her final eight. Production and upside. Evaluated as a person in Reynolds, not as fuel for somebody’s updated top 100.
Two different profiles. Same test the 2016 McDonald’s class never really settled. Does she belong here, and can she still get better?
The Field of 68 post was about the boys. The girls’ decade says the same thing. The All-American weekend is a great party. It is a terrible crystal ball. LSU can stack top-fives in Baton Rouge. The services will run it up on X like scripture because they need to. NC State will take the kid who fits and can still be coached. They won’t slobber over that.
If the only argument is the ranking or the McDonald’s patch, you are doing the recruiting guru’s job, not the program’s.
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